From Pandemic Parallax View
https://ratical.ocr/PandemicParallaxView

Dr. Dan Erickson of Accelerated Health Care talks about the impact of the coronavirus on Kern County
ABC News, KERO, 22 Apr 2020 
video (2 parts), audio (1 part), summaries (2)

Source of the above media
https://ratical.org/PandemicParallaxView/index.html#DrErickson
The following is a raw text transcript of same:

okay well thank you everybody for coming
out we've really wanted to come together
today and kind of just talk about what
we've learned over the last couple
months here it accelerated and really
talked about what's happening in Kern
County with our testing what's happening
in California with the testing and kind
of an ER physician entrepreneur
perspective on what's going on and kind
of what we think the approach should be
going forward and dr. Massey and myself
have been dealing with this as you have
I'm sure you guys are working from home
you're sheltering in place you're
isolating yourself and we want to talk
about if that still makes sense so we
want to we want to kind of take
everything we've learned and throw it
against the backdrop of who we are you
know we both have had extensive classes
in microbiology and biochemistry and
immunology we've studied this for each
of us 20 years and we take everything
that we're seeing today and we put that
against that backdrop and say does this
make sense are we following the science
we keep hearing following the science
what what is what is science essentially
it's the study of the natural world
through experiment through observation
so that's what we're doing we're
studying the disease around us or making
observations we're doing testing
experiments to figure out exactly what's
going on and so this has caused some
severe disruption for accelerated as we
have people coming in 7:00 in the
morning till midnight were reporting to
the Health Department or calling
patients back and at the same time our
volumes have dropped significantly the
hospitals there I see yous are empty
essentially and they're shutting down
floors they're furloughing patients
they're furloughing doctors so the
health system has been evacuated in
certain places in New York the health
system is working at maximum capacity in
California were really at a minimal
capacity getting rid of our doctors and
nurses because we just don't have the
volume the hospitals
as I've met with their CEOs twice in the
last week and we don't as well so we're
busy with paperwork for coated and we're
all focusing on kovat and so one of the
things I'd like to talk about is when I
talk to ER physicians around the country
what's happening
well because Co has become the focus
people with heart disease people with
cancer hypertension and various things
that are critical or choosing not to
come in based on fear so what that's
doing is causing the health system to
focus on kovat and not focus on a myriad
of other things that are critical
because we don't have the staff there
and major the major component is fear
people are saying I don't want to go get
some of my doctor what if I get the co
fit so there is a lot of secondary
effects to kovat that aren't being
talked about and so we'd like to kind of
look at how the how we've responded as a
nation and why you responded our first
initial response two months ago was a
little bit of fear we decide to shut
down travel to and from China these are
good ideas when you don't have any facts
we decided to keep people at home and
isolate them even though everything
we've studied about quarantine typically
you quarantine the sick when someone has
measles you quarantine them we've never
seen where we quarantine the healthy
where you take those without disease and
without symptoms and lock them in your
home so some of these things from what
we have studied from immunology and
microbiology aren't really meshing with
what we know as people of scientific
minds that read this stuff every day so
that's kind of how we started we don't
know what's going on we see this new
virus how should we respond so we did
that initially and over the last couple
months we've gained a lot of data
typically in Kern County for instance
are we've tested five thousand two
hundred and thirteen people and we have
three hundred and forty positive Kovac
cases
well that's six point five percent of
the population which would indicate that
there is a widespread viral infection
similar to flu we we think it's it's
kind of ubiquitous throughout California
we're going to go over the
numbers a little bit to kind of help you
see how widespread Cove it is and see
how we should be responding to it based
on its its prevalence throughout Society
or its the existence of the cases that
we already know about so if you look at
California these numbers are from
yesterday we have thirty three thousand
eight hundred and sixty-five Kovac cases
out of a total of 280 thousand nine
hundred total tested that's twelve
percent of Californians were positive
for kovat so we don't the initial as you
guys know the initial models were were
woefully inaccurate they predicted
millions of cases of death not of not of
prevalence or incidence but death that
is not materializing but is
materializing in the state of California
is 12 percent positives well if we we
have thirty nine point five million
people if we just take a basic
calculation and extrapolate that out
that equates to about 4.7 million cases
throughout the state of California which
means this thing is widespread that's
the good news we've seen one thousand
two hundred and twenty seven deaths in
the state of California with a possible
incidence or prevalence of four point
seven million that means you have a zero
point zero three chance of dying from
kovat nineteen the state of California
zero point zero three chance of dying
from kovat in the state of California is
that does that necessitate sheltering in
place does that necessitate shutting
down medical systems does that
necessitate people being out of work so
that's that's California and that's I
also wanted to mention that ninety-six
percent of people in California who get
Co would recover with almost no
significant sequelae or no significant
continuing medical problems so that's
those are important statistics for the
state of California two months ago we
didn't know this so I'm gonna bring it
to light now because we've shared our
own data
this isn't data filtered through someone
this is our own data we found six point
five percent and then California has
found twelve percent so the more you
test the more positives you get the the
prevalence number goes up and the death
rate stays the same so it gets smaller
and smaller and smaller and as we move
through this data what I want you to see
is millions of cases small amount of
death millions of cases small amount of
death and you will see that in every
state and if we and since we're talking
about following the science we're gonna
follow the statistics and follow the
science so I want to look at New York
State they've been in the news a lot
right and they're their numbers are
critical let's go over their numbers
cases of kovat as of yesterday two
hundred and fifty six thousand two
hundred and seventy two cases in New
York State not in New York City in New
York the entire state they did a total
of six hundred and forty nine thousand
three hundred twenty-five tests that's
thirty nine percent of New Yorkers
tested positive for codeine 19 that's
their ratios this is public data online
you can all look it up 39 percent of
people were tested which is likely they
likely have 7.5 million cases right so
we extrapolate data we extrapolate data
we test people and then we extrapolate
for the entire community based on the
numbers the initial models were so
inaccurate they're not even correct so
is it really a fair and say obviously
they're not as bad as they were because
those were based on alternative
scenarios and some of them were based on
social distancing and still predicted
hundreds of thousands of deaths which
has been inaccurate so in New York they
the ones they tested they found 39
percent positive so if that's indicative
and they tested six hundred and forty
nine thousand people that's a massive
test that's accurate data 39 percent so
if they tested the whole state would we
indeed have 7.5 million cases we don't
know we will never test the entire state
so we extrapolate out we use the data we
have because it's the most
we have versus a predictive model that
have been nowhere in the ballpark of
accurate so they how many deaths do they
have nineteen thousand four hundred and
ten out of nineteen million people which
is a 0.1% chance of dying from kovat in
the state of New York and they have a
92% recovery rate if you are indeed
diagnosed with Cove in nineteen ninety
two percent of you will recover so we're
seeing millions of cases small amount of
death
millions of cases small amount of death
and the reason I'm making that point is
because we're gonna compare this to flu
and say is this significantly different
from influenza A and B and if not why is
our response been what it is USA this is
this is a big one for us eight hundred
and two thousand five hundred ninety
cases as of yesterday we've tested over
four million if you guys have studied
globally what's happening that's a
double what any other country Germany's
at to their populations are lower but
the fact that we were able to ramp up
and do four million is pretty impressive
which gives us a nineteen point six
percent positive out of those who are
tested for Kovan nineteen so if if if
this is a typical extrapolation 328
million people times nineteen six is
sixty four million that's a significant
amount of people with kovat it's similar
to the flu if you study the numbers in
2017 and 2018 we had fifty to sixty
million with the flu and we had we had a
similar death rate in the deaths the
United States were forty three thousand
five hundred and forty five similar to
the flu of 2017-2018 we had we always
have between thirty seven and sixty
thousand deaths in the United States
every single year
no pandemic talk no shelter-in-place no
shutting down at businesses know sending
dr. song
every year per the CDC 30 left due to
flu in the United States some years it's
even as low as 20,000 some year in 2017
2018 it was 45 to 50 thousand depending
on who you read and we don't necessarily
report all of our flu tests we do
thousands of flu tests every year we
don't report every one because the flu
is ubiquitous and to that note we have a
flu vaccine how many people even get the
flu vaccine the flu is dangerous it
kills people so just because you have a
vaccine doesn't mean it's gonna be
everywhere and it doesn't mean
everyone's going to take it because we
see every year that we have a vaccine
and I would say probably 50% of the
public doesn't even want it so just
because you have a vaccine unless you
forced it on the public doesn't mean
they're going to take it I want to
compare the u.s. to Spain to Spain is
number two in the race for the most
cases which is not a race we want to win
they had two hundred and four thousand
one hundred seventy eight cases in Spain
nine hundred and thirty thousand total
tests so we did four million they did
nine hundred thirty thousand they had a
22% of all kovat tests were positive in
Spain twenty-two percent of those tested
were positive in Spain Spain is 47
million people so that equates to about
ten million cases if we extrapolate the
data as we've been doing with every
state gives us about 10 million cases
how many died in Spain 21,000 282 out of
47 million yevon 0 a 0.05 chance of
dying from kovat as a citizen of Spain
and a 90% chance of recovery from kovat
without being on event without being in
hospital I want to compare the u.s. of
Spain because we're the two we have the
two we have the most amount of cases
globally so I thought that was important
and then when you when you bring up a
system of lockdown you automatically
have to compare it to a system of no
lockdown Sweden and Norway I'm I'm
Norwegian
Norway has locked down Sweden does not
have locked down what happened in those
two countries are they vastly different
did Sweden have a massive outbreak of
cases did Norway have nothing let's look
at the numbers Sweden Sweden has fifteen
thousand three hundred and twenty two
cases of Kovan they have stayed seventy
four thousand six hundred tests which is
21% similar to the other countries
twenty one percent of all those tested
came out positive for Kovac what's the
population of Sweden about ten point
four million so if we extrapolate out
the data about two million cases of
Kovac in Sweden they did a little bit of
social distancing they would wear masks
and separate they went to schools stores
were open they were almost about their
normal daily life with a little bit of
social distancing they had how many
deaths 1765 California's had one
thousand two hundred and twenty with
isolation no isolation 1765 we have more
people what I'm getting at is millions
of cases very small death millions of
cases very small death this is what
we're seeing everywhere
Norway its next-door neighbor this is
where I come from these are two
Scandinavian nations we can compare them
as they are similar let's look at the
data Norway seven thousand one hundred
ninety one cases of kovat total Kovac
test one 145 thousand 279 so they came
up with four point nine percent of all
Kovac tests were positive in Norway
population of nori five point four
million so if we extrapolate the data as
we've been doing which is the best we
can do at this point they have about 1.3
million cases now their deaths as a
total number 182 fairly small but
statistically insignificant from 1700
you realize millions of cases small
amount of deaths 1,700 100 these are
statistically insignificant so you have
a point zero zero three chance of death
as a citizen of Norway and a 97
recovery their numbers are a little bit
better does it necessitate shutdown loss
of jobs destruction of the oil company
furloughing doctors that's the question
I have for you and I think the answer is
going to be increasingly clear as we
move through this data the next thing I
wanted to talk about is the effects of
kovat 19 the secondary effects
Govan 19 is one aspect of our health
sector what has it caused to have us be
involved in social isolation what is it
what does it cause that that we are
seeing the community respond to child
molestation is increasing at a severe
rate we could go over multiple cases of
children who have been molested due to
angry family members who are intoxicated
who are home who have no paycheck these
things last a lifetime this isn't a lot
of seasonal flu these are things that
will follow these people and affect them
in a negative fashion for their life and
these are secondary effects from COBIT
and these are for me talking to ers
talking to my doctors and talking to
people across the country and finding
out what they're seeing spousal abuse we
see people coming in here with black
eyes and cuts on their face it's an
obvious abuse of case these are things
that will affect them for a lifetime not
for a season alcoholism anxiety
depression suicide I talked to the the
the Donna Youngblood and various people
in the community I've asked them how are
things going
suicide is spiking education is dropped
off economic collapse medical industry
we're all suffering because our staff
isn't here and we have no volume these
are all real things that I'm seeing
every day I don't I don't read about
this stuff I'm seeing it in my clinics
we have clinics from Fresno to San Diego
and these things are spiking in our
community these things will affect
people for a lifetime not for a season
so let's let's make sure we're clear on
that so we've gone over the secondary
effects we've gone over the statistics
now I want to compare flu virus is this
significantly different and I just got a
little bit of data here so deaths per
the CDC 24
into 62,000 deaths each year we get
about we had about 45 million total
cases in 2017 with about 62,000 deaths
or a 0.13 chance of death from flu in
the United States as you know our other
numbers were 0.02 so the lethality of
kovat 19 is much less now you've got hot
beds of it in New York but again went
over the numbers 0.1% chance of death
widespread small amount of deaths it's
similar to flu as a matter of fact if we
follow the science as we've been asked
to do I'm following the science this
data is generated by the CDC World
Health Organization the testing is
generated by what we have done here so
we are following the science now I want
to talk about the immune system dr.
Missy he used to teach for immunology we
both had years of microbiology
biochemistry and biology studies we've
made it our life's work to understand
this stuff and here I'd like to go over
some basic things about how the immune
system functions so people have a good
understanding the immune system is built
by exposure to antigens viruses bacteria
when you're a little child crawling on
the ground putting stuff in your mouth
viruses and bacteria come in you form an
antigen antibody complex you form i GG
IgM this is how your immune system is
built you don't take a small child put
them in bubble wrap in a room and say go
have a healthy immune system
this is immunology microbiology 101 this
is not something this is the basis of
what we've known for years so what I'm
seeing is when you take human beings and
you say go into your house clean all
your counters Lysol them down you're
gonna kill 99% of viruses and bacteria
wear a mask don't go outside
what does it do to our immune system our
immune system is used to touching we
share bacteria Staphylococcus
streptococcal bacteria viruses we
develop an immune response daily to this
stuff when you take that away from me my
immune system drops as I shelter in
place my immune system draws
you keep me there for months it drops
more and now I'm at home hand-washing
vigorously washing the counters worried
about things that are indeed what I need
to survive let's follow the science
this is immunology folks this is
microbiology this is what we've combined
together we have 40 years of experience
in this this is common sense
immunology it decreases your immune
system you can't build an immune system
by if someone has a reduced immune
system you you hide them away cuz they
can't build the immune system if you
have a normal functioning immune system
you need interaction that when the child
is in a womb you're in this protected
environment when you come out you have
almost no immune system you develop that
through touching your mouth touching
your eyes virus bacterial virus bacteria
immune response IgG IgM this is how you
build a strong immune system of course
they are but that's that's from media
telling them to I am telling them
sheltering in place decreases your
immune system and then as what we all
come out of shelter in place with a
lower immune system and start trading
viruses bacteria what do you think is
going to happen disease is gonna spike
and then you've got disease spike
amongst a hospital system with
furloughed doctors and nurses this is
not the combination we want to set up
for a healthy society it doesn't make
any sense
initially initially maybe that was true
but again I'm going through the numbers
I'm not saying who's wrong or right I'm
going through the science and through
the numbers and I like you have been
watching media and studying this for two
months night and day
well I go to bed at 2 or 3 in the
morning every day I read after my shift
and I say what's going on here I'm not a
I'm not in an ivory tower I'm in seeing
patients every day and I'm collecting my
own data I didn't have data two months
ago I just shared my data 6.5 percent of
all pages we tested are positive that's
actual unfiltered non-political data I'm
not seeing again I'm sharing the data
I'm not seeing or write somebody the
data the data is coming in no I'm saying
you have to give the virus time in from
December to now there was tons of
hypotheses you have to let the data work
let the let the virus rise up then we
study it and we see did we respond
appropriately initially the response
fine shut it down but as the data comes
across and we say now wait a second
we've never ever responded like this in
the history of the country why are we
doing this now
even more accurate and more timely than
what we're getting here in Kern County
okay well sorry thank thank you for your
question I think your question is valid
and obviously dr. pouchy is a
world-renowned immunologist and a lot of
the data that they originally gave us
was theoretical
because coronavirus is a new virus we've
studied corona virus since the 70s
corona virus was but if you let me
finish so every year according to your
argument that you just made every year
have you every year when we get the flu
it's a new flu virus correct right but
99% of it is flu correct the way virus
has changed the undergo mutations
through their DNA deoxyribonucleic acid
there are different types of mutations
which either cause increased virulence
and more likely decrease virulence
meaning virulence meaning how dangerous
of viruses so when corona virus was
we've been studying corona virus since
the 70s and this this this this type of
corona virus that came out was first and
foremost transmissible through through
human beings and that was new and I
think anytime you have something new in
the medical community I've been a doctor
for 26 years any time you you you you
have something new in the community
medical community it sparks fear and dr.
I would have done what dr. Fauci did so
we both would have initially because the
first thing you do is you want to make
sure you limit liability and
deaths and I think what they did was
brilliant initially but you know looking
at theories and models which is what
these folks use is very different than
the way the actual virus presents itself
throughout communities and there's
different communities we're talking
about here
Bakersfield a lot more widespread than
Manhattan very very different so you
can't really theory and reality are not
always the same and that's what dr.
Erickson is presenting it's not about
being right or wrong medicine what they
teach us is you practice medicine I'm
learning every day so is dr. Erickson we
all learn every day it's not about being
right who's right who's wrong it's not a
basketball game who made the basket who
didn't it's about looking at trends and
saying hey we're not seeing what they've
been what they've been talking about for
the past six to eight weeks we've
crippled the economy there's a lot of
domestic issues going on is social
isolation warranted for the healthy you
guys have seen different drawing
different conclusions from the same data
why is that that's nicer because we're
actually seeing the patient's doctor if
ouchy hasn't seen a patient for twenty
years I'm just saying but I'm just
saying it's in general a lot of the
figureheads are not it's like the the
general contractor versus the sub he's
not seeing patients he's in an ivory
tower and we have a world of respect for
him he's a world-renowned immunologists
two different things he's in academic
we've dealt with academics all of our
life I did surgery at USC and Loma Linda
all academics but academics in reality
is two different things two different
things so we're just presenting our data
and our opinion as medical professionals
in this community
well we don't we haven't I have I have a
minute Manhattan for 20 years yeah again
as as a leader you listen to the people
around you and they make decisions on
different timelines and so Gavin Newsom
has people around him telling him we
think this is the best move for now and
then i early on we told people the truth
changes every two hours because it was
as the data moves as we do our own
testing I'm giving a different answer
now that I would have month ago because
I understand the progression of disease
in this area I also understand the
progression of disease elsewhere because
I look at their data I don't have to
live in Manhattan to watch their disease
process to watch how many positives in
the community and to understand how
diseases spread
for instance nobody talks about the fact
that coronavirus lives on plastics for
three days and we're all sheltering in
place where'd you get your water bottles
from Costco where did you get that
plastic shovel from Home Depot those are
full mites and carriers of disease so
you take your family sheltering and
placing you think it's safe and you're
taking fomites with disease that they've
shown that lasts three days
are you really protecting yourself from
Kovan does that make sense to you it
doesn't make sense to me and if I swab
things in your home
I would likely find coded 19 and so you
think you're protected but you've got
phone lights coming from you know Home
Depot and Lowe's and it's okay for us to
be mingling in those situations well we
have to not go to work it's okay for us
to go to Costco but not to church do you
see the lack of consistency here from
from a microbiological immunological
standpoint that doesn't make sense if
you're gonna isolate people you need to
shut these all down because that's how
the full mites are being transferred
when you go to Del Taco and you get a
plastic bag or piece on your burrito
from someone not wearing on
Aska was just wiping their arm on your
thing do you think you're protected from
covin when you wear gloves that transfer
disease everywhere those gloves have
bacteria all over them I'm wearing
gloves not helping you as your mask that
you're wearing for days you touch the
outside of it
COBIT and then touch your mouth this
doesn't make any sense we wear masks in
an acute setting to protect us we're not
wearing masks why is that because we
understand microbiology we understand
immunology and we want strong immune
systems I don't want to hide in my home
develop a weak immune system and then
come out and get disease we have both
been in the ER through swine flu and
through bird flu did we shut down for
those were they much less dangerous than
kovat is the flu less dangerous than
Kelvin let's look at the death rates no
it's not they're similar in prevalence
and in death rate so we are saying that
our response now now that we know the
facts it's time to get back to work it's
time to test people but again testing
gives you a moment in time testing tells
you we the nasal swab says positive or
negative the blood vial the tiger top
with a finger stick gives you IgG IgM
IgG being the long-term aim an
immunoglobulin we look at for immunity
but again it's a moment in time and when
someone what's interesting to me too is
when someone dies in this country right
now they're not talking about the high
blood pressure the diabetes the stroke
they say did they die from covet there's
as you I we've been to hundreds of
autopsies you you don't talk about one
thing you talk about Co morbidities
their vessels were narrowed their lungs
were a smoker Kovan was part of it it is
not the reason they died folks it is one
of many reasons so to be so simplistic
to say that's a Cova death because they
have Kobin you know how many people died
with pneumonia or people that died from
flu with flu I should say it's not from
flu they're their lungs were compromised
by COPD they had a heart attack two
years ago they have a weakened body
we aren't pressured to test for flu but
ER doctors now my friends at itok to say
you know you
it's interesting when I'm when I'm
writing up my death report I'm being
pressured to add covin why is that why
are we being pressured to add covin to
maybe increase the numbers and make it
look a little bit worse than it is I
think so so this is what I'm hearing
from physicians I talked in Wisconsin
New York and everywhere they're they're
being pressured to add it to their
diagnostic list so well it's I don't I
probably come in from the administration
so they're your administration is saying
it's probably coming from the hospital
administration I didn't ask them
specifically but they said we're being
pressured in house to add koba to the
diagnostic list when we think it has
nothing to do with the actual cause of
death the actual cause of death was not
Kovan but it's being reported as one of
the disease processes and being added to
the death list when they died from COPD
they had Kovac Kovac didn't kill them 25
years of tobacco use killed
is it necessary so my question is is it
necessary or are you saying it's only
necessary for some individuals to be
partying but for helping it's not yeah
exactly
I mean that's why would you why would
you quarantine the healthy if you're
young and healthy why would you why
would you quarantine yourself it doesn't
make any sense
you quarantine the ill and when T 5% of
patients who have kovat are asymptomatic
which is why we advocate for widespread
testing in order to open the economy you
have to have widespread testing that's
number one no question about it but
historically if you look at biblical
times you look at leprosy Mycobacterium
leprae which is the bacteria that causes
it they isolated the sick they didn't
isolate everybody else so isolating the
healthy just doesn't make sense
in our opinion I think so well there's
two ways to get rid of virus right
either burns itself out or herd immunity
for hundreds of years we relied on herd
immunity viruses kill people end of
story
the flu kills people Kovach kills people
but for the rest of us we develop herd
immunity we did we developed the ability
to take this virus in and defeat it and
for the vast majority 95% of those
around the globe this is true and when
we look at people that have locked down
and people that have been locked down we
have massive data it is not
statistically significant whether you
lock down or not so why are we doing it
the lock down yet it would it be safe
for people to get outside right now yes
I'm outside with no masks are the gloves
a mask maybe a little bit too much right
now is that kind of what you're saying
well again do you do you want your
immune system built or do you want it
not built the building blocks of your
immune system is a virus and bacteria
end of story that's how you build it
there's normal normal bacteria normal
flora there's normal bacteria in normal
flora that we have to be exposed to
bacteria and viruses that are not
virulent are our friends they protect us
against bad bacteria and bad viruses so
right now if you look at dr. Erikson
skin or my skin we have strep we have
staff all staff isn't bad call strep
isn't bad they protect us against
opportunistic infections that's why when
a baby comes out of the room for the
first three to six months they're
extremely vulnerable to opportunistic
infection which is why when we see a
little baby in the ER with fever that's
a one month old you do a spinal tap you
do a chest x-ray you do blood cultures
you do urine cultures but if you had a
fever I wouldn't do that for you why
because that baby does not have the
normal bacteria and flora from the
community whereas it you do because
you've interacted with you know you've
gone to the gas station you've gone to
Home Depot that's the difference normal
flora it we all need normal flora dr.
Erickson saying is when you are self
isolating at home for two or three
months you lose that normal flora so if
I guarantee when we reopen
there's going to be a huge huge amount
of illness that's going to be rampant
because our immune systems have weakened
and that's just basic immunology in
biology
I had some conclusions but basically our
conclusions are that when I look at the
the basic tenants that we know of
Microbiology and I say do we need to
still shelter in place our answer is
emphatically no do we need businesses to
be shut down emphatically
no do we need to have it do we need to
test them and get them back to work yes
we do the the secondary effects that we
went over the child abuse alcoholism
loss of revenue all these are in our
opinion a significantly more detrimental
thing to society than a virus that has
proven similar in nature to the seasonal
flu we have every year we also need to
put measures in place so economic
shutdown like this does not happen again
we want to make sure we understand that
quarantine iing the sick is what we do
not quarantine and the healthy we need
to make sure if you're gonna if you're
gonna dance on someone's constitutional
rights you better have a good reason you
better have a really good scientific
reason and not just theory we're gonna
work diligently to find a vaccine and
the one of the most important things is
wean our hospitals back up we need our
furloughed doctors back we need our
nurses back as when we lift this thing
we're gonna need all hands on deck I
know the local hospitals have closed two
floors folks that's not the situation
you want we're essentially setting
ourselves up to have minimal staff and
we're going to have significant disease
that's the wrong combination so that's
that's kind of the gist of what we
wanted to get across today and and I've
been working with some of the leaders
and I've talked to you know the head of
the CD pH I've gotten their opinion on
this and a lot of the leaders in
Sacramento and we're all in agreement
but we need to have governor Newsom in
agreement with us to lift this ban I've
talked to our local head of help the
Health Department and he's waiting for
that even though they're in agreement
with me they're waiting for the powers
that be to lift because the data is
showing
it's time to lift so if we don't lift
what is the reason well demand you
unless you're gonna grab people from
their homes people are afraid they're
sheltering in place they don't they're
having problems with their diabetes they
won't come in do you think they're gonna
come in for a test not in your life
they're sheltering in homes so a lot of
times we've you probably seen our
marketing we do coronavirus testing
we've called the major businesses you
have to have people actually come to
perform the test if they're afraid to
come in which a lot of people are we
can't get the data know the patients but
when were they tested I mean that's the
most important quit that's the most
[Music]
interested
so I mean if you look at the pending
tests within the last 10 days versus the
amount of negative and positive cases
and counties reporting it seems like it
varies maybe 150 to 200 reports coming
in today and that large number of just
over three thousand three thousand over
three thousand five hundred is still
there yeah so this idea of let's test
everybody even if every single person
here there's not a velvety one coffee
there's 10.1 billion in LA County so why
is current comment as opposed to your no
no it's not about a fault this is a
discussion we do the majority of testing
in Kern County for code we do the
majority of testing and our folks we
have a couple hundred employees are
working night and day to serve this
community so we're at full speed we can
handle a lot more testing we're seeing
about half the volume we normally see we
can double our volume and still take
care of you know getting the results
back unfortunately we don't run them
in-house nobody does we depend on major
labs that you know huge players in the
United States so our job is to evaluate
the patient make sure it's a you know
they don't have any any other issues
tonsillitis pneumonia flu swabbing for
kovetz send them to the lab the lag from
the time they get it from toe the result
is usually two days it's a two-day
result which is in line with everywhere
else one more time are we've tested 5213
we've had 340 positives now our people
get we have people calling back from
7:00 in the morning till midnight we can
only speak to our data collection
initially the labs were taking 10 to 12
days to get results that was about 6
weeks ago
then they refine their process they
brought in more analyzer so they
automate
they were doing things manually they
automated the process and now it's one
two three days all of our data is
followed up on these 5213 these are
called back we do between 150 and 200
tests every single day of the week
including weekends we have people
calling back till midnight every single
patient our data has followed up on I
can't speak to what la people are doing
I know what we're doing here these tests
have been followed up on these tests are
accurate to date and we're if you look
at the pending tests 5213 is a majority
of them so I know our process these I
don't
maybe the hospitals are not saying them
stat I don't know but that's our data is
coming around one to three days no based
on your information would you say it's
safe to open up schools sporting events
and for people to gather outside again
including James yeah I would start I
would start slowly I think we need to
open up the schools start getting kids
back to the immune system you know and
the major events the sporting events
these are these are non-essential let's
get back to those slowly let's start
with schools let's start with cafe Rio
and the pizza place here because I can
go into Sully's right now which I did
this morning there was 25 people in
there and I can stand in line for 10
minutes but I can't go in Cafe Rio and
sit there for 10 minutes does that make
sense to you guys and I think I can go
into Costco and I can shop with people
and there's probably a couple hundred
people but I can't go in Cafe Rio so big
businesses are open little businesses
are not there's no science behind that
as we've gone over that is not science
there's other factors in play that that
we don't have time to go into but it's
not science I want to make that clear
you think needs to happen or if if
someone came to you County is headed
what should we do a little bit because
you said you need testing an important
but are you seeing someone that you're
seeing a slow reopening learning with
the most essential things and working
from there and then how would you
propose doing testing well and we've
I've met with all the CEOs and all the
hospitals as early as yesterday and I've
met a couple times and they said what's
your capacity we're trying to figure out
our capacity so it's an ongoing
discussion and from our perspective
we've said let's start back opening the
businesses up people need revenue they
need the food chain for instance your
room way your Bolthouse they have
thousands of employees well they're all
working have they all been tested so our
thing is the food start with the food
industry and the food chain test them
and we're what we're trying to do now is
validate a a finger stick test so that
we can test people in three minutes
they're just coming out so we're
actually at noon today we're supposed to
meet with a major lab talking about
running the tiger top which is the blood
tube alongside the finger test doing our
self validation over the next week or
two
getting that rapid test done so that
people can test as they go into work
boom three minutes negative come and we
do that and until we find out who has
active disease who's not and we do it we
don't have to do everyone but a majority
of players and then eventually we treat
this like we treat flu which is if you
have the flu and you're feeling fever
and body aches you just stay home if you
have coffee or shortness of breath kovat
is more of a respiratory thing you stay
home you don't you don't get tested even
when people come with flu a lot of times
we don't test them we go you have flu
here's a medication or if it's been more
than two days you don't get Tamiflu it
works itself out I this this virus is
the same you have kovat go home let it
resolve and come back
negative they should because they may be
negative for the antibody for years they
may never get flu we have people in
their 50s who have never had flu well if
you have no symptoms you should be able
to return to work are you an
asymptomatic viral shedder
maybe but we can't test all of humanity
I think one thing I also wanted to add
is we're good in this cases sure we're
gonna miss cases of coronavirus just
like we miss cases of the flu I think
one thing that is being televised is
that we need to capture every single
coronavirus patient no we don't because
that's not reality theory and reality
are very very different we work in ers
for 15 years theory and reality are very
different it would be nice to capture
every coronavirus patient yes but is
that realistic are we gonna keep the
economy shut down for two years and
vaccinate everybody that's an
unrealistic expectation I think so
you're gonna cause financial ruin
domestic violence suicide rape violence
and what are you going to get out of it
you're still gonna miss a lot of cases
so we need to treat this like the flu
which is familiar and eventually this
this will mutate and become less and
less virulent because a symptom patients
who are asymptomatic or silent shedders
usually have the the milder version of
the corona virus right because it's
milder that's why they're not as
symptomatic and that tends to spread
quicker than the more virulent forms
one of them was what sources do you cite
about their claims what scientific
studies this is too early scientific
studies double-blind clinical controlled
trials take time years so we're doing
the best with the data we have I gave
you the statistics this is all common
knowledge you can find online this is
their countries reporting to these
different news entities this is all
common knowledge this is not based on
double-blind clinical control trials
again we've been studying microbiology
for twenty years this is our life goal
in our 20s and 30s 40s this is what we
do we throw this information against the
backdrop of knowledge we have both have
degrees in this and say is this
legitimate I don't need a double-blind
clinically controlled trial to tell me
if sheltering in place is appropriate
that is the that is a college-level
understanding of microbiology that's
next year next year two years down the
line a lot of times in medicine you have
to make you have to make educated
decisions with the data that you have I
can sit up you know in the forties 47th
floor in the penthouse and say we should
do this this and this but I haven't seen
a patient for 20 years that's not
realistic we were using the basic data
that we have here which we're happy to
share with you guys we have all the data
this is our data from Kern County and
because we're the largest testing center
for Kern County we're assuming our data
is accurate for this specific area 5,000
we've done five thousand two hundred and
thirteen that's okay five thousand two
hundred and thirteen and we have three
hundred and forty fives at three hundred
forty six points five percent I think so
I mean sorry to cut you off your vitamin
D levels go down you're not outside
you're not you know your mood goes down
when your mood goes down you're more
likely to get sick you get depression
going outside is healthy I mean why
can't you go to the park and walk around
but you can go to Home Depot nobody's
wearing a mask it just it doesn't make
sense the inconsistencies and
congruencies make no sense that's the
restaurants after stay-at-home order you
might see waiters no it's not it's not
we don't disagree with that I mean I
think you can look at it from two
different ways I think if you're healthy
and you don't have significant
comorbidity comorbidities and you know
you're not on you know you're not
immunodeficient and you're not elderly
you should be able to go out without any
gloves and without a mask I think if you
are those things you should either set
shelter in place or wear a mask and
gloves I don't think everybody needs to
wear the masks and gloves because it
reduces your bacterial flora it doesn't
allow you to interact with society and
your bacterial flora and your viruses
your friends that protect you from other
diseases end up going away and now
you're more likely to get opportunistic
infections infections that are hoping
you don't have your good bugs fighting
for you if that makes sense
the u.s. is below almost every Western
European nation for testing - I think
the UK implants and release is like
nowhere lower than everybody -
[Music]
I think we're about 12,500 per million
you can prance about 8,000 if you look
like Germany and Denmark that are
beginning to open up there they're
testing rates for governor are three
times higher than ours are we've also
had their test positive rate is between
3 and 12 percent which is what the World
Health Organization so it should be the
popular they are closer to 20 percent
nationally so what stage do you think we
get that adequate testing which you guys
are calling for where we can start to
take those approaches to get our economy
moving and start with me oh well I think
you can I think that's an excellent
question I think the problem with with
wanting widespread testing versus not
being scared enough to come to a
facility to get white press widespread
testing are two different things
if you're at home seeing tons and tons
of people die I don't want to go to
accelerate it I don't want to get
testing that fear prevents people from
coming in when this this press 
 unknown the unknown always scares us so
in my opinion what are the risks what
are the benefits of social isolation and
we think that the risks of social
isolation are too high we have seven
[Music]
talked to ER doctors who have no arteria
motive they have the same viewpoint
there's there's a post today from a
doctor from Wisconsin I encourage you
all to read it I'll share his story with
you it is exactly what we're saying and
he eloquently displays he's an ER doctor
he says I'm walking into this war zone
or ICS are empty I'm scared to go to my
own place of work there's no patients
but we have people and hazmat suits
checking my temperature as I walk
through the doors
he's like something else is going on
here this is not about science and it's
not even about COBIT when they use the
word safe the word safe if you listen
the word safe
that's about controlling you so when I
talk to all my ER doctors who work in a
hospital no stake in the game same
opinion
that's how I'll answer your question we
all have the same opinion
now for reason of death which would
presumably instead of working people
[Music]
exactly there's something there's
something else going on and that's a
different discussion we don't know I
mean that's we're just here to present
that scientific that's a political
discussion we're just we're presenting
the medical data here I mean what what I
when I think about politics is
irrelevant
we need to we need to stay on things
that we are we can answer intelligently
which is not why does a CEO of some
Hospital Wisconsin do that we need to
stay on the topic of do we need to
shelter in place and does that make
sense from the microbiology knowledge
we've known for thirty years the the the
the sciences haven't changes we live our
life in the life sciences biology
biochemistry microbiology so everything
that you're asking us goes against that
sheet of information why people do
things that a hospital is not really our
area of expertise so from what we've
seen right now it's time to open back up
the science says it is the models we
have been using from predictions to
predict the amount of disease are not
accurate
this information is accurate it models
the flu let's go back to work that's
what the data is saying not models data
is saying that I mean hospitals there
are completely overwhelmed and swamped
and that people you know working in the
ours are dying from this so I mean there
is it that's not just a flu tape
situation right look at ileum 2017
hospital systems overwhelmed people
dying overwhelmed system from the flu
this happens from the flu if you've been
working in the ers I've seen multiple
people hallways full people dying news
media they're stories going on from the
flu this does happen this does happen
it's not just the fluid
that's what I mean that's not that
that's exactly what I mean people think
it's just the flu with just corner
where's what's the difference you're
used to the flu you're used to saying
it's just the flu
FL you influenza is something we've
grown up with you're used to it you're
used to it right if somebody commits
suicide today you're like yeah that
person committed suicide it's awful
where if somebody dies today from the
flu they died from the flu it's awful
terrible but we're used to it we're not
used to coronavirus not used to
something brings fear you know I mean
from the things that I've been reading
even you know doctors working in the ers
in New York City I mean I even heard any
one of them saying oh it's similar to a
flu outbreak
I mean they were pretty impacted by
swine flu in New York City but I mean
have you heard anybody really say oh
it's just like it was you know I mean
have you it's giving they're getting hit
hard they're a hot zone and we don't
ride subways with you know a thousand
people in a small car there are this
close they had reasons for the disease
and coronavirus has shown to be very
contagious let's be clear it is
contagious we're not saying it's not it
may even be from what I've read more
contagious and spread more rapid but the
actual cause of death and the disease
cycle is similar to what we're seeing
from the flu with more of a respiratory
component you know and they are they
were screaming for ventilators what
percent of people died on ventilators
eighty ninety percent once you're on a
ventilator if you understand you're in a
bad shape and they're screaming for
30,000 ventilators that they didn't use
right they're screaming for a lot of
things 30,000 they used five how many
hundred percent over did they order how
many hundreds of millions of dollars
entire companies GM were forced to
switch their production lines for what
I'm saying the secondary causes of what
we're seeing oil shut down we are we
have predictable negatives from from
from lockdown predictable negatives
Korona has one
predictable negatives the entire nation
you think you know respectively the
numbers are low in the ratios figure
eventually the fatality verses some
people have because we've been social
distancing now you don't think it's
because since we started doing is that
those models that are declining health
shows how effective social visits his
that's that's all fall but that's why we
went over Sweden and Norway I did we
went over Sweden Norway because you have
locked down no lock down Sweden no lock
down Norway lock down that's with that's
ten million that's 15 million people we
have the day that's why I just went over
with you they're not testing everybody
the bottom line is from those of us who
study it and have a background in this
is lockdown a versus non lockdown did
not produce a statistically different
number of deaths that is the bottom line
[Music]
yeah it's testing analyzing these
numbers in the panel I probably wouldn't
perform salaat es without trying to
cross references I hear our president I
hear out of governor's say social
distancing is working and you guys think
it's not needed so I guess I guess
that's why I'm trying to wrap my head
around like why is that it was needed in
daylight it was needed initially they
actually I completely we both agree with
exactly what they did initially because
we did it now it was an unknown now it
is becoming known initially when you're
when you don't know something you're
extra careful because you're fearful
it's just like when you see a patient
and they're very sick you test for
everything because you're scared you're
fearful but then as you see more of
those patients you realize hey I know
what to test for right it's shotgun
effect versus sniper effect right so
initially when when this data came out
of a new virus that's causing that sets
lethal they they went out they went all
out and I think that was appropriate but
now that we have the data we're seeing
that 96 97 % of patients completely
recover and those four patients that
died they have over 90 percent
comorbidities let's run let's run
through that one more time out of a
hundred people if 96 do fine the four
that die ninety percent of those four
have comorbidities heart failure
emphysema rheumatoid arthritis lupus
they're on immuno modulating medications
they're immunodeficient HIV these are
the people that are dying you get some
healthy people that die but that's an
infinitesimal number tiny
well I just I think I think we're in the
weeds we work with this every single day
and the numbers don't make sense to us
and they don't make sense to eat our
physicians and physicians all over the
country it's not just us that question
just make sure we get it right I think
you guys is 54 for less than your
fingers on damn everything that's da n
PRI CK som Artin AR TI n mas Shi I'm
just looking through to meet sure that I
can answer
we're not saying we're right we're
saying here's the data here's what we
understand it's not a year right you're
a wrong thing it's the way we interpret
data we work in the field and some
people that are not working in the field
and still getting a paycheck have a
different opinion if you weren't getting
a paycheck you might have a different
opinion if you weren't getting a
paycheck if everybody in here is getting
a paycheck right
Caffe real is not they've all been
furloughed when you don't get a paycheck
your opinions start switching if you
were at home furlough for the
unforeseeable future would you be
excited about staying sheltering in
place well it's also it's at what point
who says what's safe are you smart
enough to know what's safe for you or is
the government gonna tell you what's
safe for you who tells you what as soon
as they use the word safe that means
control we know it's safe for you you're
too dumb to understand disease you see
we know what's safe and so they're gonna
use this model for different things we
got a bomb threat from China everybody
stay in their home for three months what
they are using this to see how much of
their freedom can they take from you and
will you roll over and stay in your
house and it's working and if you notice
the way Americans are responding if you
go to any gun store in town guess what
they're out of ammo none of them have
ammo I went to three of them they said
we did thousands of rounds have been
bought white people are mad they're
starting to post on my facebook with
their aks going let's roll so what I'm
saying is let's avoid all that because
if you if you stop on our freedoms that
has one ending and it's violence well
thank you guys